Morgane Oger

The situation for transgender and nonbinary people in the U.S. seems to be worsening and quickly. If history has taught us anything, it’s that when a marginalized group is targeted, escape routes can close quickly.

For those paying attention, the writing is on the wall: a combination of restrictive laws, court decisions, and rising hostility is making it harder for trans people to live safely in the U.S.

History has shown how quickly borders can slam shut for persecuted groups—often leaving people trapped in deadly situations:

• Nazi Germany (1930s-40s): As the Nazis rose to power, many Jewish people sought to flee. But as Germany’s persecution escalated, other countries tightened immigration policies. By 1939, thousands were turned away, including the MS St. Louis, a ship carrying Jewish refugees that was rejected by Cuba, the U.S., and Canada. Many of its passengers later perished in the Holocaust.
• Iran after the Islamic Revolution (1979): As the new regime cracked down on dissenters, secular Iranians, feminists, LGBTQ+ people, and religious minorities tried to escape. But within months, borders tightened, and exit visas became harder to obtain. Many who didn’t flee in time were executed or imprisoned.
• Afghanistan (2021): When the Taliban seized power, LGBTQ+ Afghans, women’s rights activists, and U.S. allies rushed to escape. But within days, flights out became scarce, visa processing slowed, and thousands were left behind. Many faced immediate persecution or were killed.

The lesson is clear: the ability to escape persecution is not guaranteed. If the U.S. continues on its current trajectory, it may become harder—or even impossible—for trans and nonbinary people to leave freely. Now is the time to prepare. Now is the time to plan.

This article outlines what to watch for and how transgender and nonbinary Americans can secure an exit strategy—whether they have a passport or not. It also provides guidance for foreign trans and LGBTQ+ people living in the U.S. on visas, who may need to act before their legal protections disappear.

---

How Many Trans and Nonbinary People Live in the U.S.?

Understanding the scale of impact is essential. According to a 2022 study by the Williams Institute at UCLA, an estimated 1.6 million transgender people live in the United States. This includes:

• 1.3 million transgender adults (18+)
• 300,000 transgender youth (ages 13–17)

Nonbinary identities are harder to track in official data, but surveys from the Pew Research Center and The Trevor Project indicate that as many as 5% of young adults identify as nonbinary or gender nonconforming. That means millions of trans and nonbinary people in the U.S. are directly affected by rising anti-trans laws and policies.

For those living in states aggressively rolling back trans rights—such as Texas, Florida, Tennessee, and Oklahoma—the situation is especially urgent. These people currently have the option to relocate to other states, but in an environment so hostile to trans people as the U.S. has become, it is important to weigh the risk President Trump and Elon Musk could decide to make that harder.

---

The Choke Points: How Rights and Access Are Being Restricted

Trans people in the U.S. are already facing unprecedented legal and social attacks, but certain pressure points will determine whether escape remains possible.

1. Legal Restrictions on ID Changes and Travel
   • Some states have already made it difficult or impossible to change gender markers on driver’s licenses and birth certificates. If this expands federally, it could affect passports.
   • If bans on trans healthcare expand to criminalization, it’s possible that people could be legally prevented from leaving their states or even the country.
2. Federal Immigration and Border Policies
   • The U.S. government has broad discretion to block citizens from obtaining passports or leaving the country. Watch for political efforts to frame trans people’s movement as a security issue.
   • Canada’s Safe Third Country Agreement (STCA) makes it difficult for U.S. citizens to claim asylum unless they arrive through irregular routes. If this loophole closes, Canada may become unreachable for asylum-seekers.
3. Escalation of Law Enforcement Targeting
   • If trans healthcare bans escalate into criminal penalties, there could be direct legal action against trans individuals or parents of trans youth. This could lead to people being flagged in government databases, making border crossings more difficult.

---

If You Have a Passport: Move Quickly While You Still Can

A valid passport is one of the most powerful tools for ensuring an escape route remains open. If you already have one, your next steps depend on your level of urgency and risk.

1. Secure Dual Residency or a Visa for Canada or Another Safer Country

• If you are at low risk and have time to plan, consider getting a temporary visa for Canada, Europe, or other safe countries.
• Canada’s Express Entry system allows skilled workers to apply for residency. If you qualify, begin the process immediately.

2. Keep Your Documents in Order

• Ensure that your passport has at least six months of validity remaining.
• If you have a birth certificate or any other ID with a gender marker that doesn’t match your passport, carry additional legal documents to explain discrepancies.

3. Consider Leaving Before It Becomes Urgent

2. Transition to a More Secure Visa Category

• If you feel unsafe, don’t wait until the situation worsens.
• If laws restricting trans rights become harsher, sudden exits will be harder. Consider leaving while travel remains easy and before public hostility escalates further.

---

If You Don’t Have a Passport: Take Action Now

Not having a passport creates a major vulnerability if things take a sharp turn for the worse. The U.S. has denied passports for political reasons before, and if trans identity becomes a target for government control, the ability to obtain one could be blocked.

1. Apply for a Passport Immediately

• If you don’t have a passport, apply as soon as possible.
• Use an expedited service if you can afford it.
• If you lack necessary documents (like a birth certificate), start the process of obtaining them now.

2. Get a Second Form of Identification

• A tribal ID (for Indigenous people) or a U.S. passport card can allow land border crossings.

3. Build a Legal and Financial Exit Plan

• If a crisis forces you to leave suddenly, having financial resources and a support network in place is critical.

---

Considerations for Foreign Trans and LGBTQ+ People in the U.S. on Visas

If the U.S. becomes more hostile, those on visas could lose their legal status and be forced to return to unsafe home countries.

1. Seek Asylum Before Your Status Expires

• If returning home is dangerous, consider filing an asylum claim while still in legal status.

• If on a student or work visa, look for long-term pathways to permanent residency in Canada or other safe countries.

---

Final Thoughts: The Time to Prepare Is Now

If you’re trans or nonbinary and in the U.S., it’s time to start thinking seriously about your long-term safety.

Right now, you still have options. But that window is closing.

If you can get a passport, do it. If you can line up a visa, do it. If you need to escape quickly, know your routes and who can help you. The worst thing you can do is assume that things will get better before they get worse.

Be ready. Be safe. And, if necessary, be gone before it’s too late.